WITH either result the NSW election on 25 March will break new ground. A coalition loss will see Labor governments in all Australian mainland states and territories, as well as federally. Will Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff cut a lonely blue figure at the next National Cabinet in Canberra, or will Premier Perrottet take the coalition to a record 16 years of government in NSW?
This election occurs in a different political landscape to last May’s federal election. In its three terms the NSW government has had its own controversies and made its own mistakes, but it’s not juggling the potent negatives and lack of narrative that swamped the Morrison government. The corruption and disfunction of the last NSW Labor government also still lingers in the memory of many NSW voters.
This election is likely to be won and lost in western Sydney. The new seat of Leppington and the existing marginal East Hills are two examples where the major parties are focussing their time and money.
Closer to home, and starting at the Harbour and the electorate of North Shore, incumbent Felicity Wilson has a potentially strong challenger in Helen Conway. Member for Hornsby, NSW Treasurer, and moderate, Matt Kean has drawn attention to Ms Conway’s former career as chief legal counsel at Caltex, contrasting this to her switch to environmentalist politician. North to Gladys Berejiklian’s old seat of Willoughby, polling says Tim James faces a threat from independent Larissa Penn.
Over in Wakehurst the retirement of Brad Hazzard has prompted a more open field of candidates including longstanding and popular Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan.
Every two terms the NSW Electoral Commission completes a re-distribution of electoral boundaries. Each electorate is mapped to contain around 60,000 voters. For example, further north the electorate of Davidson now reaches to the suburbs of Gordon, St Ives and North Turramurra, and Ku-ring-gai is now replaced by Wahroonga and extends north-west as far as Westleigh.
Following Jonathon O'Dea's retirement in Davidson Matt Cross won preselection over Natalie Ward. Ms Ward was seeking to move down from the Legislative Council to the Legislative Assembly. Alister Henskens replaced Barry O'Farrell as the Member for Ku-ring-gai in 2015 and his ministerial responsibilities have grown under Dominic Perrottet's leadership. While our local Liberals are quick to say they are not being complacent, donation caps, fewer teal dollars, and optional preference voting all mean the threat is less significant than in last May’s Federal election.
Skipping further north, former Australian cricketer and Liberal Nathan Bracken is taking on The Entrance’s Labor incumbent David Mehan. I recently spent some time with Mr Bracken where he reminded me that in 2013 John Singleton backed him to run in Dobell as an independent. This time around he is a Dominic Perrottet captain’s pick.
At the time of writing the Liberal campaign launch had a big reveal – the NSW Kids Future Fund. It’s a co-funded endowment scheme, maturing on a child’s 18th birthday, and redeemable for their home deposit or their education funding. Critics will call it middle-glass welfare, but it may be a winner if it appeals to aspirational young families in the electorates that will determine the election outcome.
Greg Cook is a member of the Liberal Party of Australia and was a candidate for Gordon Ward in the 2021 Ku-ring-gai Council elections.
