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No such thing as a ‘safe seat’
6 min read

AS we head to the polls on March 25th, conversation seems to pivot around which seats are ‘safe’ for incumbent Liberals across the North Shore. 

I don’t like the arrogance of the words ‘safe seats’; I’ve been asked which seats I think are ‘safe’. Whilst I hear that this State election will be won and lost out West, I care about our community and who is going to represent the views of the vast majority here.

Safe seats such as Davidson are on the list, whilst Willoughby looks dicey. Community Independent, Larissa Penn, appears to have gained more support within the community since running in 2022 when she, despite being narrowly defeated by Tim James, reduced the Liberal safe margin from 21% to now under 3%.

This election, many are tipping Penn to win this away from the Liberal party.

Liberal Member for the North Shore, Felicity Wilson, hasn’t taken anything for granted and is seen actively engaging and campaigning across her community. This is much the same as Tim James, who only came to hold the seat of Willoughby once it was vacated by long-time Member for Willoughby, and NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian in February 2022. 

Whilst it appears Felicity Wilson and Tim James have maintained a rapport within the community, issues across the lower North Shore such as the horrific clearing of trees at Cammeray, bus interruptions, and the Harbour tunnel uncertainty, haven’t gone unnoticed and are bound to cost votes.

In stating this, the lower North Shore is fortunate to be progressing with plans for two new high schools and supporting transport infrastructure in Chatswood and Gore Hill. So clearly Liberals on the lower North Shore have delivered for their community, with education leading the way.

As we go to print, The Post has scheduled two ‘Meet the Candidates’ forums in the lead up to the election; one for Hornsby and one for Davidson. Naturally, those who eagerly registered the very next day are the opposing candidates. 

Interestingly, as we go to print, limited interest is observed from Liberal candidates. 

Overall, the key issues on top of mind at every election are healthcare, education, transport, and the environment. Housing affordability is a real issue as residents are struggling to afford to buy or rent property. These issues take a toll on the various charities that support the area, and lead to homelessness, overcrowding, and eventually impact mental health.

Hornsby is home to 156,000 people and has some of the most stunning pristine bushland, the Bushland Shire is an incredibly large electorate. The Post has run editorial regarding the Hornsby Master Plan, and I note the population of Hornsby will continue to grow to 174,000 by 2036, representing nearly 12% growth. 

Yet, Member for Hornsby since 2011, Matt Kean, believes Hornsby doesn’t warrant its own co-educational high school. Kean cites a recent feasibility study and states, “While numbers do not support the establishment of a new high school at this time, the work undertaken provided a framework for the recent changes in boundaries which have now been implemented.” 

Families from the Hornsby LGA must travel to the Ku-ring-gai LGA to attend a co-ed high school from next year. This doesn’t seem to phase the Local Member. 

As locals and The Post readers will evidently understand, St Ives High School is currently the only co-ed high school for Hornsby-Shire families. There have been ongoing and outstanding issues surrounding lack of transport and unsafe infrastructure surrounding St Ives High.

The Post has taken this matter up on too many occasions to recall. We have liaised with Transport for NSW and with all three local Members to no avail. Whilst the safety issues sit squarely within the Davidson and Ku-ring-gai electorates, the issue of buses to and from the school from Hornsby sit solely with the Member for Hornsby, Matt Kean. ‘The treasurer of treachery’, is how outgoing Transport Minister, David Elliott, has referred to the NSW Treasurer. This factional feuding within the Liberal party hasn’t helped the plight for #BetterBusesforStIves.

So, would Hornsby do better with an Independent or another party? 

I predict Kean will suffer a strong swing against him at this election. NSW One Nation Leader, Mark Latham, visited Hornsby Fountain in early March speaking to locals about their Local Member. Latham commented  that the shift away from Liberal party views (by Kean) with the public stating to Latham “he’s in the wrong party”. Latham estimated the opinion as high as 50% of those he spoke with holding the opinion that Kean’s views meant that they would not vote for him again. On the issue of the transport issues for St Ives HS he stated “it’s a failing of the Local Member”.

There are some very worthy candidates for Hornsby.  Independent candidate, Benjamin Caswell, has been getting to know locals across Hornsby and offers innovative solutions for some of the issues Hornsby residents face. 

Melissa Hoile, Labor Candidate for Hornsby has made it clear that parents deserve the choice of sending their children to a co-ed school given we live in a co-ed world and transport to support this should be afforded. 

I've loved getting to know both of these strong candidates and I believe they can deliver for Hornsby.

One Nation has announced Steve Busch as their Hornsby candidate and he's certainly worth a look, in fact I suspect he will attract a strong following across the community, you can read more about him on page 6 of the print edition.

I’m also aware that in Ku-ring-gai, percolating issues such as the loss of green space, the uncertain future of bowling clubs, and high-rise developments continue to plague what will now be known as the Wahroonga electorate. 

Concerning for Davidson and local community is the evident funding crisis for the much-needed refurbishment of the iconic Marian Street Theatre. Estimated at more than $21 million dollars, no funding pathway has been identified.

The Labor party have heard the community by putting forward strong, qualified female candidates across the North Shore. This is something that has been lacking from the Liberal party: at every opportunity they preference a male as is evidenced by preselecting Matt Cross for Davidson over Natalie Ward. 

Karyn Edelstein, the Labor candidate for Davidson, Kristyn Haywood, the Independent for Wahroonga, are truly inspiring. I found them both to be well educated, intelligent, strong women who have decided to take a stand and represent the community. This takes determination and bravery in a ‘safe’ seat.

So, at this upcoming State election, I urge all voters to take a closer look at the candidates.

Thomas Jefferson said, 

“The government you elect is the government you deserve.”

This is an opportunity to challenge the ‘status quo’ and change the ‘state we are in’.

I have interviewed Benjamin on my Monday afternoon radio show on 6th March, Kristyn Haywood was interviewed on 13th March and Melissa Hoile is being interviewed on 20th March.

You can listen by going to www.triplehfm.com.au